Specify all ten observations
These are fictional completed trades in the same hypothetical money units: seven at+1 and three at−3, before costs. No account capital or account-return percentage is defined. They are neither real trades nor Student Wyckoff indicator results.
The positive fraction is 7/10=70%. The average positive outcome is+1 and average loss magnitude 3. Losses occur less often, but each is three times the win.
| Group | Count | Gross per trade | Gross total | Net total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Positive | 7 | 1.00 | 7.00 | 6.30 |
| Negative | 3 | -3.00 | -9.00 | -9.30 |
Calculate the total and average too
The positive group contributes 7×1=7, the negative group 3×(−3)=−9. Total 7−9=−2; per observation−2/10=−0.2. Seven positive outcomes out of ten can coexist with a negative total.
Assume total round-trip cost 0.1 for each completed trade, not 0.1 for each side. Ten cycles cost 1: net total−3, average−0.3. Each win nets 0.9 and each loss−3.1.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Positive fraction | 70% |
| Gross total | -2.00 |
| Gross average | -0.20 |
| Total cost of ten cycles | 1.00 |
| Net total | -3.00 |
| Net average | -0.30 |
A future probability is not an observed sample fraction
Expected value averages specified possible payoffs using their probabilities. In this fixed hypothetical payoff scheme, if the future win probability were p, E=p×1−(1−p)×3−0.1=4 p−3.1.
This formula breaks even at p=0.775, or 77.5%. That is algebra with fixed payoffs and costs, not an estimate of a real probability. Substituting the observed 0.7 reproduces the sample mean−0.3; it does not prove a future win probability of 0.7.
What ten numbers cannot establish
The sample is small and invented. It measures neither strategy stability, future losing runs, execution, slippage nor account risk. Selecting only attractive cases can distort even the fraction of wins. Do not call this a measured indicator win rate.
Variable gains, losses and costs require retaining their actual values rather than imposing our fixed+1/−3 on every market. Dependence and changing conditions remain separate questions.
What belongs in a teaching journal
Keep positive, negative and unfinished cases with their rules and costs. Compare fractions, payoff averages and totals on the same basis. The existing guide explains saving analysis; the platform promises neither that future probability nor automatic trading-performance statistics.
- Show payoff sizes alongside the winning fraction.
- Count complete costs once.
- Separate observed averages from expectancy with unknown probabilities.
Primary sources
Sources explain the mechanics and limitations; the editorial examples use invented numbers rather than market quotations.
Your next practical step
Student Wyckoff Pro helps you study closed bars and save your analysis. It does not execute trades; access and the Windows connection are explained in the guide.
Explore saving your analysis ↗